The Iowa Problem

by Travis Prinzi on January 4, 2008

Update II:  Ok, so I can’t stay away; it’s confirmed - Paul’s in the ABC debate Saturday night (Hunter, Kucinich, Gravel are all out).

Update: One last thought before retreating to L’Engle: the hope that remains for Paul looks like this - if he does pull a strong third in NH, which is quite possible, South Carolina is going to be interesting. He’s got a good shot at doing really, really well there and coming out a frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday. I still don’t think Huck’s going to pull off this nomination, but if Thompson and Romney continue to basically steal votes from each other, it’s going to come down to McCain or the long-shot surprise win by Paul.

Yes, of course Ron Paul supporters are still holding out hope after a 5th place, 10% finish in Iowa. It’s not as good as I hoped. He was close to both McCain and Thompson, but not close enough to get the third place I was hoping for.

The fundamental problem with what happened in Iowa is this: the polls, the most recent of which had him at 9%, were apparently correct. And if the polls were correct, then the hope that a large number of Ron Paul supporters were not being reached by the poll calls (first time voters, college kids with cell phones) did not pan out. That’s not good news.

On the other hand, 10% in a state like freaking Iowa from a guy with very little media attention; who simply does not play politics like usual - he doesn’t go for the 30 second sound bytes, and you actually have to listen to him for a while; who is a lone voice in the Republican party on many issues; that’s really not a bad start. Perhaps if Paul supporters had taken their cues from Paul himself (who very much understated his chances in Iowa), there’d be a bit less disappointment.

The good news: Ron Paul definitely met the criteria for the ABC debate; so I don’t see why we wouldn’t see him on stage with the other fruntrunners on Saturday night. Fox News, I’m quite certain, will not change their minds. Their mentality is much like this guy:

Anyway, at least the New Hampshire Republican debate will only have the five frontrunners (no Ron Paul distraction!)

Distraction. I just want to say… @$%…I mean….#$%^@#….Sarcasm@#$@@$…..satirical response@@#$@…

Nevermind. I’m going to spend the entire day in Madeleine L’Engle’s world instead of my own.

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